Large language models (LLMs) suffer from forgetting of upstream knowledge when fine-tuned. Despite efforts on mitigating forgetting, few have investigated how forgotten upstream examples are dependent on newly learned tasks. Insights on such dependencies enable efficient and targeted mitigation of forgetting. In this paper, we empirically analyze forgetting that occurs in N upstream examples of language modeling or instruction-tuning after fine-tuning LLMs on one of M new tasks, visualized in M N matrices. We show that the matrices are often well-approximated with low-rank matrices, indicating the dominance of simple associations between the learned tasks and forgotten upstream examples. Leveraging the analysis, we predict forgetting of upstream examples when fine-tuning LLMs on unseen tasks with matrix completion over the empirical associations. This enables fast identification of most forgotten examples without expensive inference on the entire upstream data. Despite simplicity, the approach outperforms prior approaches that learn semantic relationships of learned tasks and upstream examples with LMs. We demonstrate the practical utility of our analysis by showing statistically significantly reduced forgetting as we upweight predicted examples for replay during fine-tuning.

Large Language models (LLMs) suffer from forgetting of upstream knowledge when fine-tuned. Despite efforts on mitigating forgetting, few have investigated how forgotten upstream examples are dependent on newly learned tasks. Insights on such dependencies enable efficient and targeted mitigation of forgetting. In this paper, we empirically analyze forgetting that occurs in $N$ upstream examples of language modeling or instruction-tuning after fine-tuning LLMs on one of $M$ new tasks, visualized in $M\times N$ matrices. We show that the matrices are often well-approximated with low-rank matrices, indicating the dominance of simple associations between the learned tasks and forgotten upstream examples. Leveraging the analysis, we predict forgetting of upstream examples when fine-tuning LLMs on unseen tasks with matrix completion over the empirical associations. This enables fast identification of most forgotten examples without expensive inference on the entire upstream data. Despite simplicity, the approach outperforms prior approaches that learn semantic relationships of learned tasks and upstream examples with LMs. We demonstrate the practical utility of our analysis by showing statistically significantly reduced forgetting as we upweight predicted examples for replay during fine-tuning.

Language models (LMs) are known to suffer from forgetting of previously learned examples when fine-tuned, breaking stability of deployed LM systems. Despite efforts on mitigating forgetting, few have investigated whether, and how forgotten upstream examples are associated with newly learned tasks. Insights on such associations enable efficient and targeted mitigation of forgetting. In this paper, we empirically analyze forgetting that occurs in $N$ upstream examples while the model learns $M$ new tasks and visualize their associations with a $M \times N$ matrix. We empirically demonstrate that the degree of forgetting can often be approximated by simple multiplicative contributions of the upstream examples and newly learned tasks. We also reveal more complicated patterns where specific subsets of examples are forgotten with statistics and visualization. Following our analysis, we predict forgetting that happens on upstream examples when learning a new task with matrix completion over the empirical associations, outperforming prior approaches that rely on trainable LMs. Project website: https://inklab.usc.edu/lm-forgetting-prediction/

Humans can perform unseen tasks by recalling relevant skills acquired previously and then generalizing them to the target tasks, even if there is no supervision at all. In this paper, we aim to improve this kind of cross-task generalization ability of massive multi-task language models, such as T0 and FLAN, in an unsupervised setting. We propose a retrieval-augmentation method named ReCross that takes a few unlabelled examples as queries to retrieve a small subset of upstream data and uses them to update the multi-task model for better generalization. ReCross is a straightforward yet effective retrieval method that combines both efficient dense retrieval and effective pair-wise reranking. Our results and analysis show that it significantly outperforms both non-retrieval methods and other baseline methods.